Monday, November 26, 2007

Independent Spirit Award nomination predictions

BEST FEATURE
I'm Not There
Into the Wild
Juno
Margot at the Wedding
The Savages
(alt. Waitress, Lars and the Real Girl)

BEST FIRST FEATURE
Away From Her
Once (???)

THAT SPECIAL AWARD FOR MOVIES MADE FOR LESS THAN $500,000
Once (???... it was made for $150,000 but who knows where they'll put it)

BEST LEAD ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett (I'm Not There)
Julie Christie (Away from Her)
Nicole Kidman (Margot)
Laura Linney (The Savages)
Ellen Page (Juno)
(alt. Keri Russell)

BEST LEAD ACTOR
Ryan Gosling (Lars)
Glen Hansard (Once)
Emile Hirsch (Into the Wild)
Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Savages)
Gordon Pinsent (Away from Her)
(alt. Sam Riley)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Christian Bale (I'm Not There)
Philip Bosco (The Savages)
Hal Holbrook (Into the Wild)
Heath Ledger (I'm Not There)
Max Von Sydow (The Diving Bell and the Butterfly)
(alt. Jason Bateman)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Charlotte Gainsborough (I'm Not There)
Catherine Keener (Into the Wild)
Jennifer Garner (Juno)
Jennifer Jason Leigh (Margot at the Wedding)
Samantha Morton (Control)
(alt. Olympia Dukakis, or Sigourney Weaver for something)

BEST SCREENPLAY
Noah Baumbach (Margot)
Diablo Cody (Juno)
Todd Haynes (I'm Not There)
Tamara Jenkins (The Savages)
Adrienne Shelly (Waitress)
(alt. Sean Penn)

BEST DIRECTOR
Todd Haynes (I'm Not There)
Ang Lee (Lust, Caution)
Sean Penn (Into the Wild)
Sarah Polley (Away from Her)
Jason Reitman (Juno)
(alt. John Carney)

These are totally random guesses and I don't expect them to be right. I just wanted to take a stab at it. But it's hard to know what films even quality for these awards, and in which category. So whatever. I'm probably leaving out several films that are in fact original, but I don't care. I do have this strange hunch, though, that Blanchett will be lead here (even if she isn't anywhere else) and Gainsborough will get in for supporting, along with some of the boys. I'm Not There should be big. Anyway, yeah.

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6 Comments:

Blogger J.D. said...

Yeah, your choices are WAY too commercialized to me right. And Gone Baby Gone is Miramax, so, no.

9:20 PM  
Blogger adam k. said...

OK I got rid of Gone Baby Gone.

But the Spirit Awards have been getting more commercialized every year for a while now. Plus I just don't have time to dig deep and find totally random things no one has seen that might be nommed. We'll see which of these they like, and which they leave off.

9:44 PM  
Blogger Kamikaze Camel said...

But Focus aren't exactly "independent" anymore and Brokeback Mountain won, nor are any of the studio offshoots like Fox Searchlight.

Remember stuff like Sideways has gotten in before, too.

I think the budget cutoff is $20mil, which is quite ridiculous considering it's supposed to be "independent".

You're right though that there are always weird titles. One thing they LOVE to do is if there is an actor getting praise for an ineligible film they will nominate them for something really obscure. Like when Jamie Foxx got a nomination for a TV movie (!!!) and so on.

10:38 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

It's Gainsbourg, by the way. Why does this misspelling keep showing up?

11:13 AM  
Blogger adam k. said...

I don't know. I used to spell it correctly, but since then I've seen it spelled both ways, so I changed it up. My bad.

12:48 PM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

I think the cast of I'm not there could have more nominations:
Best Actress in a LEading Role:
-Cate Blanchett (only here), Ugly for Sienna Miller
Best Supporting Actor:
-Christian Bale
-Marcus Carl Franklin
-Heath LEdger
Best Supporting Actress:
-Charlotte Gainsbourg

6:12 PM  

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