new OSCAR! post (because I'm in the mood)

OK, so my globe and BFCA nomination rundowns will have to my merged with my upcoming win prediction posts, cause yeah it's getting really late to just react to the nominations, and there's just a lot going on in my life right now, so I've felt less of an urge to blog. But anyway, oscar thoughts:

MY CURRENT FEELING IS THAT BEST PIC WILL BE:
1. No Country for Old Men (has everything going for it)
2. Into the Wild (has recovered well from the globe snub)
3. Atonement (the actors don't love it but every other branch will)
4. Sweeney Todd (ditto... and Tim Burton has career award sentiment)
5. There Will Be Blood (could easily be THE major snub, but it's huge right now, the LA critics winner is usually nommed... and I don't know what I'd replace it with)

BUT several films could spoil this (admittedly optimistic) lineup. Those films are:

6. Juno (a prime candidate for the "best pic without a director" slot AND the comedy slot, but it skews SO young in its appeal, has no pedigree at all, missed the SAG ensemble nod, and doesn't have the tech branches either... so I just can't see it making the final five, even with Ebert's help)
7. Michael Clayton (VERY possible, but I think it'll have trouble getting #1 votes... and that could make the difference in such a competitive year... also missed SAG ensemble despite 3 individual noms... that's worrisome... tepid box office hurts it, too)
8. American Gangster (will also have trouble getting #1 votes... it's made the BFCA, GG and SAG ensemble lists, but it feels very "been there, done that" and support has been spotty despite those 3 key nods)
9. The Diving Bell and the Butterfly (could easily get the director/screenplay duo, but hasn't broken out in the way foreign films need to in order to crack best picture)
10. Hairspray (can't entirely be counted out after GG and SAG nods... and it's box office and "feel good" quality help it stand out... but it just doesn't feel like a real contender)

In all honesty, There Will Be Blood will probably be a just-miss that's nominated for director, screenplay and lead actor, but it has so many tech possibilities in addition to those that it looks like it could barrel into the top category on it's support from all the various branches. And all the would-be usurpers have drawbacks of their own. So I'm leaving it in, for now. The WGA/DGA/PGA trifecta will tell us a lot.

I'm not too worried about the SAG shutouts for Atonement and Sweeney Todd, since:

A) they're not really ensemble films
B) there were screener issues, and
C) they have abundant tech elements keeping them afloat

...not to mention that they'll probably both win their respective globes for best pic, cementing them as major contenders.

Charlie Wilson's War and The Kite Runner could both be given new life in the form of guild love, but for now, it doesn't look like they're going anywhere. I think best pic is between these ten. I suppose I haven't seen enough of these to know what my dream lineup would be, but I'd really like There Will Be Blood to make it (cause Anderson f***ing deserves it already, and dark films should be given more love) as well as Michael Clayton (cause it was very very good, and I hate to see middling box office kill a film's chances). And Sweeney Todd I would like to see in the mix simply because I love seeing musicals do well, and there were so many good ones this year that ONE of them should be in the lineup (preferably Once, but obviously that's not happening). I also very much liked Atonement and No Country, but I'm not as worried about them. I wish I'd seen Into the Wild so I could have an opinion on its now-very-likely nom, but alas, I missed it. Still, most people I trust have had so-so reactions to it, so I kind of wish it could be replaced by something better. But I'm not holding my breath.

Thoughts?