SAG predictions + actuals

Sorry, I haven't done the stuff I said I'd do before (GG run-down, BFCA run-down, WHO'S HOTTER, etc.) but I will eventually (hopefully before people stop caring). I have a job now, and I am of course trying to see movies, so I've been busy. At least the personal drama seems to be settling down (though not in the way I wanted). Anyway... SAG tomorrow... my predictions are as follows:

BEST ENSEMBLE
Atonement
Hairspray
Michael Clayton
No Country for Old Men (for the win?)
Sweeney Todd
alt. Juno
3:10 to Yuma
American Gangster
Into the Wild

BEFORE THE NOMS, I SAID... This one is not quite clear. Atonement, No Country and to a lesser extent Michael Clayton look good to go. For the last two spots, I'm tapping the musicals, though in truth I think only one will make it. Juno is looming and is a good bet, but I'm betting the many famous singing actors in Hairspray (a true and deserving ensemble) and/or Sweeney (highly buzzed) will win out. Into the Wild is also a distinct possibility.

NOW, I SAY... What the F***!? Wow, this is crazy. Quite a wrench thrown in the works here. For one thing, the actors hate Atonement. That can't be good. It didn't get nommed ANYWHERE. Into the Wild recovered well from the globe snubbage, as many expected. American Gangster shows that it's still very much alive (even without Denzel). 3:10 to Yuma makes a surprise showing. And I was right about Hairspray. I was WRONG however about Michael Clayton, which managed three individual nods, but no mention here. Weird. Anyway, I suppose this means No Country is winning. Crazy.

MY SCORE: 2/5 (ouch)

BEST ACTRESS
Amy Adams
Julie Christie (for the win?)
Marion Cotillard
Laura Linney
Ellen Page
alt. Cate Blanchett
Angelina Jolie

BEFORE, I SAID... This one's tough. There are still a lot of women in play here... Jolie and Blanchett both have GG (drama) and BFCA noms, but I'm not predicting them. Knightley is obviously a possibility, but I think her likely ensemble mention is enough reason for them to pass on her here. Foster is still possible, as well. As is HBC, if they're crazy for Sweeney. But I'm going to go with Adams (who would seem like a stronger bet here than with oscar, even if she didn't have GG and BFCA noms, which she does) and Linney (who I'm hoping will surprise here, since she's loved by her fellow actors). I hope I'm right, since I love both actresses, and don't think Jolie and Blanchett need any more love. But we'll see what happens...

Note: I have tapped Christie to win here, and I think she will (legend who's never won a SAG award, critical frontrunner, etc.) BUT I think if anyone can beat her, it's Adams. She has a unique and singular (if un-oscary) role, and she rocked it like no one else could. And more importantly, her film has a big BIG advantage over all the others in that lots more people have seen it. It will reach $100 million soon. While Juno may start rolling in dough eventually, Adams is the clear populist choice as of now.

NOW, I SAY: Wow, I hate these noms. I guess Angelina is fine (though I didn't expect to see her here), but Blanchett AGAIN!? Come on, people, be a little creative. Could you really think of no one else to honor than someone whose movie totally flopped and was badly received and who is getting nominated in your other category anyway? How ridiculous. It just reeks of laziness and preordainment. And this kills Linney for good. I suppose these will probably be our 5 oscar nominees, though that would make me very sad. I'm still holding out for Keira (the SAG membership obviously doesn't like her, but AMPAS does) and/or Adams (a much more fun and justifiable choice than Blanchett).

MY SCORE: 3/5 (4/5 with my alternate)

BEST ACTOR
George Clooney
Daniel Day-Lewis (for the win?)
Johnny Depp
James McAvoy
Viggo Mortsensen
alt. Emile Hirsch
Ryan Gosling

BEFORE, I SAID... I think the awards radar is starting to hone in on these five men, for both SAG and oscar. The first three are locks, McAvoy carries a frontrunner film, and Mortensen's overdue and has been doing better than expected with precursors. Nevertheless, Hirsch, Washington, and perhaps even Gosling remain strong challengers here. But I for one would LOVE for these five to be the lineup (even though Clooney is the only one I've seen).

NOW, I SAY... No Depp. My goodness. And here, of all places (I love that both times I claimed an "epic battle for the win," one of my imagined competitors wasn't even nommed). At least Mortensen made it. And you gotta love that Ryan Gosling keeps getting noticed... lots of goodwill, he has. Shame about Depp, though. This really changes things... without Depp as competition, Daniel Day-Lewis should win this one in a walk, giving him lots of momentum against Depp at oscar time. If the latter is even nominated, that is. Oy vey.

MY SCORE: 3/5 (4/5 with my alternate)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett (for the win?)
Saoirse Ronan
Vanessa Redgrave
Amy Ryan
Tilda Swinton
alt. Jennifer Garner
Ruby Dee
Catherine Keener

BEFORE, I SAID... Alright. Four women all look lockish here: Blanchett, Ryan, Ronan, Swinton. I'd worry a bit for Ronan except that SAG in particular LOVES child actresses. So I think she's in. But the 5th spot is really hard to say. It could be anyone. I just picked Redgrave cause she seems like the type of legend who they'd just honor out of veteran worship. BUT that goes against the usual logic of smaller roles being honored only in ensemble at SAG. I do have this feeling about Garner making it here, but I only think she will if Juno gets in for ensemble... and currently I'm predicting it not to. Ditto Catherine Keener. BUT let it be known that I won't be surprised in the least if either of them makes it.

Note: I don't think Amy Ryan has much chance to win here, despite all the critical hosannas... I just don't think enough people have heard of her or her film, and SAG is quite populist. And while Blanchett's film is no blockbuster, everyone knows her and worships her AND Bob Dylan. And she's trumped a critical frontrunner here before. So I think it's hers.

NOW, I SAY... well, I said I was worried about Ronan... but I never actually expected her to miss. Crazy. They REALLY didn't care for Atonement. As soon as I noticed she was missing, I knew it was in trouble... she was its surest bet here. Damn. Anyway, Blanchett, Ryan and Swinton just keep on keepin' on, and I was also right about Keener, even though I didn't pick her even as an alternate. And perhaps most importantly, Ruby Dee finally makes an appearance. Does this mean she's in for oscar, too? And could she actually win the SAG, since she's in the most widely seen film? Blanchett has a double nom, so she'll be tough to beat. Hmmm...

MY SCORE: 3/5

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Casey Affleck
Javier Bardem (for the win?)
Philip Seymour Hoffman
John Travolta
Tom Wilkinson
alt. Hal Holbrook
Tommy Lee Jones

BEFORE, I SAID... I feel pretty confident about all of these. Affleck, Bardem, Hoffman and Wilkinson have yet to miss a major precursor... so they all seem safe. The globes swapped Travolta for Holbrook, and I think SAG will nod him, too, in keeping with my theory that they'll love Hairspray... though Holbrook should be a close 6th. Max Von Sydow, I think, could stage a William-Hurt-like coup at the oscars, but I don't expect to see him here.

NOW, I SAY... well, finally, a category where the surprises make my happy. Yay for shakeups. No Travolta or Hoffman! Yay! Two noms for No Country! Yay! But again, weird. And what does this mean for oscar? Tough to say. And could this impede Bardem's chances for a SAG win, or does it just strengthen them? Again, tough to say.

MY SCORE: 3/5 (4/5 with my alternate)

Anyway, yeah... not such good news for Sweeney and Atonement (to put it mildly), and extremely confusing in general. Did the SAG nominating committee even SEE Atonement and Sweeney? They haven't been in theaters, so if there weren't aggressive screening campaigns, maybe the actors just didn't see them? Or maybe they just hated them. Maybe they were turned off by Sweeney's bad singing, or Keira's bony clavicle. I don't know. What a wild ride this season has been for these two films. I'm so curious to see how they end up.