Sunday, October 29, 2006

Oscar charts: Best Adapted Screenplay

THE FIVE (4/5=80%)
1) The Departed (=)
2) Notes on a Scandal (=)
3) Little Children (=)
4) Children of Men (=)
5) Borat! (NEW)

UPDATE (1/23): YES!!! I KNEW Prada wouldn't get in here. Smoking, too. So go me. I can't believe everyone was predicting those. I knew Notes and the Children films would get some love here. And I'm SO happy they found a way to honor Borat without having to shaft Ryan Gosling. Borat is more deserving in this category anyway.

UPDATE (1/22): Randomly switching Last King for Veil. I'm hoping the Whitaker wave will sweep in his film's screenplay (instead of a supporting nod for McAvoy, please). I ALMOST decided to give in and predict Prada here, but I'm sticking to my guns and saying it'll be shut out.

UPDATE (1/20): This category is tricky. I seem to be diverging from the consensus in this race.

For one, I don't believe The Devil Wears Prada will score here. Yes, it has the Scripter nod and the WGA nod, but in the case of the Scripter, it didn't have to compete with things like The Departed and Dreamgirls, and the WGA always goes more for comedies and is decided largely by TV writers (who would be more appreciative of Prada's sitcom-style humor). Basically, it's just not the kind of script the academy honors, no matter how successful the film was.

I also don't think Dreamgirls will make the cut over all the more worthy competition. The only lock, I think, is The Departed, but along with it, I expect to see more oscary stuff like Veil, Notes and both Children films. But of course I could be wrong. We'll see.

UPDATE (1/5): The Scripter noms give some new insight into this race, giving boosts to Children of Men, The Last King of Scotland and The Devil Wears Prada, and hurting Little Chldren and The Painted Veil. Todd & Tom's screenplay in particular was looking very solid before the scripter noms, but I have to knock it out of "lock" status, since it was snubbed. I still think both snubbed screenplays will make it, though, along with Notes, The Departed and critical fave Children of Men. I DON'T think Dreamgirls will make it... at least it shouldn't... that writing was nothing special at all.

UPDATE (12/16): Dreamgirls falls to #5. I still think it'll score here (thanks to Letters' switch to "original"), but the multiple globe snubs are not encouraging. The Painted Veil, meanwhile, soars to #4, while Thank You For Smoking rises to #6. Flags, Children of Men, and Last King of Scotland are longshots, but still possible... as is Prada, which I think could actually score here if its unexpected strength is any indication.

UPDATE (12/3): Letters enters and looks like a likely nominee. Flags also rises again with its satellite nom, as does Thank You For Smoking. Good German and History Boys fall due to bad buzz... it looks like the nominees will come from the top ten.

UPDATE (11/13): The Good German takes a hit, due to what appears to be unfavorable reception. The Painted Veil makes a giant leap into my top 5, mostly because it looks oscary. Also, Happyness and Good Year exit (due category change and critical thrashing, respectively), making room for Smoking and Marie.

FIRST THOUGHTS: I'm feeling pretty good about The Departed and Little Children. Notes I also expect to be nominated as long as it's successful... it seems very screenplay-friendly (I believe Judi Dench's character Barbara writes notes and narrates... plus come on, it's Patrick Marber). The Good German I think is something that could score in screenplay (having come from a respected novel), even if it's ignored elsewhere. And Dreamgirls of course could steamroll... though the screenplay might be inexplicably snubbed (it happens often with musicals).

I'm not sure if Pursuit of Happyness is adapted, but if so, it's a major threat. History Boys and Children of Men also might make waves in this category, but it's too soon to tell. Flags I think will miss here even if it's nominated for Best Picture (and currently I'm predicting it will). And Scotland... well... who knows. The third-tier offerings won't factor in much, I don't think, but it's early still... you never know what might heat up.

So, this is the last of the charts... I might update them later, right from the original posts, but we'll see how that works... I might just not want to deal with it (wish I had an actual website). Someone, please leave comments to show me I didn't waste my time with all this posting. Cause this took like all day long. Damn.


Blogger JavierAG said...

But where to comment? :P

Very good predictions, seriously if the Best Actress lineup looks like this it will be heaven. Except these people have got to start nominating Cate Blanchett properly (my guess is that her face is too esoteric for them... no, seriously).

3:08 PM  
Blogger Ali said...

I'm hoping for serious Blanchett representation this year too.

Although I am thrilled that she is an Oscar winner (whew!), I still kind of wish in some ways she hadn't won. Why? Because if she was Oscar-less heading into this season, I could totally see a double nomination happening (a la Julianne Moore in 2003.)

Now that she's won, they don't owe her anything else.

3:49 PM  
Blogger adam k. said...

Maybe comment on individual categories in their respective posts? That was the idea. But I think from now on, I'll do chart updates one at a time.

I agree about Blanchett's unique face. But in fairness, she hasn't made all that many great films. It's understandable that they wouldn't recognize her for films that were nothing special.

I don't think the win will hinder the double nom, though... they did it for Emma Thompson just after she'd won. It's more that she's up against three perennial favorites (Streep, Winslet, Dench), a prohobitive frontrunner (Mirren) and a big breakthrough (Bruz). I feel like she'll come in 6th. But we'll see.

4:46 PM  
Blogger adam k. said...

Bruz = Cruz. Whoops.

4:47 PM  
Blogger JavierAG said...

That makes sense, Adam. In any case, it's fine because I'm guessing her career will span for decades (she just has those features...) so I'm thinking turning 40 soon won't really be such a big deal as it is for most actresses nowadays.

9:27 PM  

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