what I'm inclined to predict right now

Note: These are NOT my final predictions. Well, I guess they might be. But I'm not committing to anything. Many of these are just me flipping a coin. I'm sure I'll waste a lot more time thinking about them before making my final choices.

Picture: The Departed (it just makes the most sense)

Director: Marty (a lock)

Actor: Forest Whitaker (but O'Toole could still take it)

Actress: Helen Mirren (the biggest lock in any category in years)

Supporting Actor: Eddie Murphy (by a nose over Arkin)

Supporting Actress: Jennifer Hudson (a lock, but less so than Mirren)

Original Screenplay: Little Miss Sunshine (pulling away from The Queen)

Adapted Screenplay: The Departed (a lock)

Editing: Babel (or United 93 or The Departed)

Cinematography: Children of Men (a lock)

Art Direction: Pan's Labyrinth (god, I hope so)

Costume Design: Dreamgirls (my heart says Prada, my brain says no)

Makeup: Pan's Labyrinth (a lock)

Visual Effects: Pirates (a lock)

Sound: Dreamgirls (a near-lock)

Sound Editing: Letters from Iwo Jima (its only award of the evening)

Score: Pan's Labyrinth (Pan's is hot hot hot...)

Song: Dreamgirls, "Listen" (it'll be close, but this song screams oscar)

Documentary: An Inconvenient Truth (a lock)

Animated: Cars (NOT a lock... Happy Feet is still in this)

Foreign: Pan's Labyrinth (The Lives of Others is possible, but not likely)

FINAL TALLY
Dreamgirls: 5
Pan's Labyrinth: 4
The Departed: 3
(no other film gets more than one)

That's what I'm thinking right now.