Oscars, Oscars, Oscars...

So I think I may actually be attending an oscar party this year at school and/or watching the oscars with similarly oscar-obsessed friends. This never happens for me. I always just watch them alone in my room like a nerd. So that's exciting.

Also, I'm thinking of changing some predictions, namely swapping Arkin for Murphy and (gasp!) The Lives of Others for Pan's Labyrinth. People have been saying that the actual voters who have seen all five films will be voting for The Lives of Others, and I could see that happening. Even though you'd think Pan's Labyrinth, with its NSFC award and huge critical following, would not be in danger of this kind of "people who've actually seen all the nominees won't vote for it" downfall. But people are saying it is.

Also, I'd seriously consider predicting Babel or Letters for best picture, but that's just it... I wouldn't know which one to pick. I think they'll BOTH be getting a lot of votes and will thus cancel each other out (as I just explained in a comment on Nat's blog). Both are competing for the same socially conscious/liberal guilt votes. Were those votes all going to one nominee, I think it would win (as Crash did last year... shudders), but with both in the mix, I think the prize will ultimately go to the slow-and-steady awards stalwart that is The Departed.

The Departed = The Silence of the Lambs
Little Miss Sunshine = Beauty and the Beast
Babel + The Queen = Bugsy

I think 1991 is the closest parallel to this year.