Spirit predix and (semi)final Oscar predix

2007 Spirit Award predictions (full list of nominees here)

BEST FEATURE
prediction: Little Miss Sunshine seems like the inevitable winner here. The only oscar nominee in the category, and too big a success to pass up.
alternate: Half Nelson
look out for: Pan's Labyrinth (why isn't this one in foreign?)

BEST FIRST FEATURE
prediction: Wow, I have no idea. None of these have a very high profile. But I'll go with The Motel since I just read a story about how great it is that it's nominated.
alternate: Day Night Day Night
look out for: Man Push Cart (whatever, I have no idea)

BEST DIRECTOR
prediction: Dayton & Faris will most likely be honored along with their film.
alternate: Ryan Fleck, Half Nelson
look out for: Robert Altman, A Prairie Home Companion

JOHN CASSAVETES AWARD (best feature under $500,000 or some such)
prediction: Quinceanera (I'm not even venturing an alternate guess, cause I haven't heard of any of the other nominees... that's usually a good sign that the one you've heard of will win)

BEST SCREENPLAY
prediction: Tough one. Most of these are relatively high profile scripts, but none really stands out as being the frontrunner. They might want to honor Nicole Holofcener as a makeup award for when they shafted her in 2002 (for The Good Girl... ugh). Or they might go for the classy, restrained script for The Painted Veil. But I'm betting they continue their record of hip/spotty choices in this category and go for the oscar-buzzed (but not necessarily good) screenplay for Thank You For Smoking... it seems right up their alley in many ways.
alternate: The Painted Veil
look out for: Friends with Money

BEST FIRST SCREENPLAY
prediction: This one will likely go to oscar frontrunner Michael Arndt, even if Half Nelson's screenplay was better.
alternate: Anna Boden & Ryan Fleck, Half Nelson

BEST FEMALE LEAD
prediction: I find it hard to imagine this award not going to Guest darling Catherine O'Hara for her central role in For Your Consideration...
alternate: ...BUT I could be totally off; it wouldn't shock me to see Shareeka Epps take this.
look out for: Robin Wright Penn & Michelle Williams (they were both just nominated last year, and that momentum thing can work wonders)

BEST MALE LEAD
prediction: Ain't no way this isn't going to indie darling and oscar nominee Ryan Gosling for Half Nelson.
alternate: Don't need one; Gosling's got it sewn up.

BEST SUPPORTING FEMALE
prediction: This is hard, because once again, we have a category without any high profile contenders; this'd be much easier if either Shareeka Epps or Catherine O'Hara had been placed here. As it is, I'll go with Frances McDormand; she's by far the biggest name, and most widely loved, even if her Friends with Money perf's a walk in the park.
alternate: Mary Beth Hurt, The Dead Girl
look out for: Marcia Gay Harden, American Gun

BEST SUPPORTING MALE
prediction: Common wisdom would seem to point to Arkin here, but it's a different race with Paul Dano also present. I'm guessing they divert and go for it-boy Daniel Craig for his role in Infamous.
alternate: Alan Arkin
look out for: Paul Dano
om(f***ing)g, please no!: Channing Tatum

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
prediction: Guillermo Navarro, Pan's Labyrinth. Easy.

BEST DOCUMENTARY
prediction: My Country, My Country is the only oscar nominee in the bunch, and for that reason, I think it'll win here.

BEST FOREIGN FILM
prediction: Sans le presence de Pan's Labyrinth, The Lives of Others should take this in a walk. But why isn't Pan's Labyrinth here?

Alright, I'm not doing these BS "special award" things. Although I hope the producers of Shortbus win the Axiom award. They deserve something for having the balls and ingenuity to produce that film. And how 'bout the "special distinction" prize for David Lynch and Laura Dern? Pretty awesome, says me.

I think my final oscar predictions are the same as in the post below, actually. I'm seriously waffling on Arkin/Murphy and Lives/Labyrinth... I really don't know what to think, except that it'll be close. Obviously other races like best picture, score and editing are close, too, but I've basically settled on my choices there, regardless. But the other two categories are irking me. Thoughts?

UPDATE: Alright, I think I'm actually switching to Arkin, The Lives of Others AND An Inconvenient Truth for best song. Maybe this Dreamgirls vote split theory makes sense. Could Dreamgirls and Pan's each win only 3 oscars? Or even fewer? Dreamgirls is so darn hard to read... it could go home with 6 oscars or 2. Impossible to say how it'll go down.