Sunday, January 06, 2008

BFCA madness

Man, I am losing my passion for this awards prediction stuff. I'm assuming that's because I have more of a life lately, which I guess it a good thing. Anyway, I'm gonna do this anyway, since the BFCA awards are tomorrow and I have nothing particularly better to do. Here goes:

BEST PICTURE (top ten)
American Gangster*
The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Into the Wild*
The Kite Runner
Michael Clayton*
No Country for Old Men*
Sweeney Todd*
There Will Be Blood*

I did well with this - 8 of my ten predictions made it, as did one of my two alternates. The only nominee I missed entirely was The Kite Runner, which I dumbly assumed would miss since it hasn't gotten great reviews (this is a CRITICS organization after all). But true to form, they snubbed much better reviewed and more acclaimed films (including my predictions Once and Ratatouille) to make room for something they thought had a chance with oscar. Whatever.

FOR THE WIN: I'm guessing No Country for Old Men takes this since it seems to be the consensus mainstream pick right now, as well as the critical favorite... but Into the Wild, Atonement or something else could still take this, I think.

ACTUAL WINNER: No Country for Old Men

Tim Burton, Sweeney Todd*
The Coen Bros, No Country*
Sidney Lumet, Before the Devil Knows You're Dead
Sean Penn, Into the Wild*
Ridley Scott, American Gangster
Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Joe Wright, Atonement*

Alright, so they had 6 nominees here... I guessed 4 of them out of 5 tries. If I'd chosen a 6th, I'm sure it would've been one of the other two that made it. Schnabel and Diving Bell got lots of love here and can't be counted out for oscar. Lumet can, though, I think, since his drearily nihilistic film is looking like more and more of a longshot in every category, especially here.

FOR THE WIN: This will be the Coen Bros... hard to see it going down any other way.


Charlie Wilson's War
Into the Wild
Lars and the Real Girl
Michael Clayton*
No Country for Old Men*
The Savages

This went down rather differently from how I thought. Annoying to see Sorkin popping up everywhere despite his film being something of a disappointment. Oh well. Fun to see Lars here, though... it actually has a decent shot at two oscar noms.

FOR THE WIN: That'd be Diablo Cody's Juno script -she's everyone's favorite person this year - barring a major sweep for No Country.


George Clooney (Michael Clayton)*
Daniel Day-Lewis (There Will Be Blood)*
Johnny Depp (Sweeney Todd)*
Ryan Gosling (Lars and the Real Girl)
Emile Hirsch (Viggo Mortensen)
Tommy Lee Jones (In the Valley of Elah)
James McAvoy (Atonement)
Viggo Mortensen (Eastern Promises)
Denzel Washington (American Gangster)

3 out of 6 here. Ouch. But yay for Gosling, Hirsh and Mortensen! Sometimes it's nice to be wrong.

FOR THE WIN: Daniel Day-Lewis is looking like a steamroller, despite Depp's being in prime position for a career award. The dream role of Sweeney Todd might not be enough to stop DDL's "legend who needs two oscars" momentum.

ACTUAL WINNER: Daniel Day-Lewis

Amy Adams (Enchanted)*
Cate Blanchett (Elizabeth: The Golden Age)
Julie Christie (Away From Her)*
Marion Cotillard (La Vie En Rose)*
Angelina Jolie (A Mighty Heart)*
Keira Knightley (Atonement)
Laura Linney (The Savages)
Ellen Page (Juno)

4 of 6. Meh. Disappointed that they went with Blanchett here, starting the snowball effect that may well lead to her getting an oscar nod. I also missed Page, thinking they'd honor her in the young actress category instead, but it seems she's not young enough. Too bad for Knightley and Linney.

FOR THE WIN: Now that she's won the NBR, NYFCC and NSFC (and will likely win the drama globe as well), I'm betting that they're betting on Julie Christie for the oscar... which is why they'll pick her.

ACTUAL WINNER: Julie Christie

Casey Affleck (Jesse James)*
Javier Bardem (No Country for Old Men)*
Phillip Seymour Hoffman (Charlie Wilson's War)*
Paul Dano (There Will Be Blood)
Hal Holbrook (Into the Wild)*
Tom Wilkinson (Michael Clayton)*

5/5 for me here... though I'd predicted six nominees. Why do they stupidly have 6 spots for leading actors and 5 spots for supporting? That makes no sense. Anyway, this may well be the oscar list, too... though I hope PSH is switched out for, say, Max von Sydow (it could happen).

FOR THE WIN: Holbrook could upset, but I think Bardem still has the momentum here.

ACTUAL WINNER: Javier Bardem

Cate Blanchett (I'm Not There)*
Jennifer Jason Leigh (Margot at the Wedding)
Catherine Keener (Into the Wild)
Vanessa Redgrave (Atonement)
Saoirse Ronan (Atonement)
Amy Ryan (Gone Baby Gone)*
Tilda Swinton (Michael Clayton)*
Marisa Tomei (Before the Devil Knows You're Dead)

3/5. I picked the wrong Briony, and also went for Tomei instead of perennial supporting actress favorite Catherine Keener. Oh well.

FOR THE WIN: This could swing to Ryan or even Keener, but I'm going with the safe pick, Blanchett.

ACTUAL WINNER: Amy Ryan (I was wrong! argh)

3:10 to Yuma
Grace is Gone
Lust, Caution*
The Golden Compass
There Will Be Blood*

3/6 (but then I only guessed 5). Major starf*cking happening here with Eastwood. A little lazy of them voting for Enchanted. But whatever.

FOR THE WIN: I'm guessing Atonement, but I would see them honoring Greenwood or even Eastwood, too... tough to say.

ACTUAL WINNER: There Will Be Blood (wrong again... I underestimated their ability to choose a cool winner)

"A Hero Comes Home" (Beowulf)
"Come So Far" (Hairspray)*
"Do You Feel Me?" (American Gangster)
"Falling Slowly" (Once)*
"Guaranteed" (Into the Wild)*
"That's How You Know" (Enchanted)*

4/5... not bad for such a crazy category.

FOR THE WIN: I'll be optimistic and say "Falling Slowly" takes it, though I could see this going lots of different ways.

ACTUAL WINNER: "Falling Slowly" (right about this one... please please please let it win the oscar)

Across the Universe
I'm Not There
Sweeney Todd

They no longer have a soundtrack category! That's a shame, cause there were so many good choices this year. SO many musicals... sigh.

Dan in Real Life
Knocked Up*

4/5 here... not bad. I guess Enchanted was not funny enough for them to go with that instead of Dan in Real Life. Whatever.

FOR THE WIN: Probably Juno (doing gangbusters right now at the BO, and the most highly buzzed contender), but if they're just going for what's FUNNIEST (as it seems they did last year with Borat), then Knocked Up could take it.


August Rush
Bridge to Terabithia
The Golden Compass
Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix*
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End

3/5... so The Golden Compass is a family film? Hmmm.... curious. And one of the year's best family films? That's not what the reviews and box office seem to be saying. Ditto the reviews for August Rush. Anyway. Whatever. Why didn't they nominate Bridge to Terabithia here? I found it rather generic and mediocre but it WAS successful, and seeme a perfect fit for this category. Oh well.

FOR THE WIN: I'm saying Enchanted, since it really has that "family film" vibe, though I wouldn't be surprised at all to see Hairspray take it.


Bee Movie
The Simpsons Movie

They didn't do this category either, according to their website. Curious.

ACTUAL WINNER: Ratatouille (OK yeah they did do this category, it just wasn't on their website)

Nikki Blonsky (Hairspray)*
Ellen Page (Juno)
Dakota Blue Richards (The Golden Compass)
AnnaSophia Robb (Bridge to Terabithia)*
Saoirse Ronan (Atonement)*
Emma Watson (Harry Potter)

3/4. Why were there only 4 nominees? Weird. And how did I forget Dakota Blue Richards? Argh (though she wasn't quite as good in the film as its trailer had led me to believe).

ACTUAL WINNER: Nikki Blonsky (I forgot to predict a winner here, but it probably would've been her)

Michael Cera (Juno)
Michael Cera (Superbad)
Marcus Carl Franklin (I'm Not There)
Freddie Highmore (August Rush)*
Elijah Kelley (Hairspray)
Josh Hutcherson (Bridge to Terabithia)
Daniel Radcliffe (Harry Potter)
the kid from The Kite Runner
the kid from Sweeney Todd

1/5... wow, I bombed here. Whatever.

FOR THE WIN: Conventional wisdom would say Michael Cera, but I think perhaps he'll split his vote and allow it to go to the kid from The Kite Runner. That kid really deserves some kind of award for everything he put up with making that film.

ACTUAL WINNER: the kid from The Kite Runner (I was right!)

I didn't watch the awards, depressed as I was that they somehow managed to go on while the globes did not. Can you say BOYCOTT? Anyway. I did quite well in my predictions. The only two I missed were supporting actress (I keep underestimating Amy Ryan, and I'm sure I'll continue to do so) and score (I didn't think they'd have the balls to go for Johnny Greenwood... good for them). I also neglected to predict the ensemble acting category, but I would've guessed No Country there, so let's say I got three wrong (the winner was Hairspray... good for it). Still, that's not half bad for the first award show of the season.

But again, why does anyone care about these awards? The BFCAs are dumb.



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