OMG, WALL•E just won yet another critics' award.

Chicago. This makes 3, all from relatively major cities (including L.A.). One might even call it this year's critical favorite, though Slumdog and Milk are certainly running close. We'll have to see how the top ten lists go, but so far, it looks like WALL•E may be on top.

Please please please let it be nominated for best picture.

SAG nominations!

Quick thoughts: Doubt did extremely well, like I thought. 5 nominations, including both supporting actress nods, as well as ensemble. This has to boost its best picture profile, though I still doubt it'll make the cut in that race. Frost/Nixon managed an ensemble nod despite its being basically a duet, so that indicates it has huge best picture support. And Slumdog made the ensemble cut even though it has no stars and is not really an actors' piece, so it of course is locked in for best picture as well. Milk bounced back with nods for the ensemble and for Josh Brolin, though Franco missed, and is sadly out of the race for oscar : ( The last nominee was Benjamin Button, which solidified its own nomination for best pic as well. Ensemble list:

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (3 noms)
Doubt (5 noms)
Frost/Nixon (2 noms)
Milk (3 noms)
Slumdog Millionaire (2 noms)

No out-of-nowhere choices this year, but still some major snubs. Big "ouch" for Revolutionary Road. Beyond Winslet's "Year of Kate" citation, it failed to get traction. Rachel Getting Married, as I feared, went by the wayside as well. Something worthy always does. And finally, The Dark Knight failed to lock in its best pic chances today, which is what would've happened if it'd scored here. In the actors' minds (as in the globes'), it's Heath Ledger's show only. So it's anyone's guess as to whether the academy'll go for it, even if it has the guilds (which it will).

This could be the oscar lineup right here, though The Dark Knight and/or WALL•E still stand poised to replace something here, most likely the nomination leader, Doubt. I went 3/5 in my predictions, thinking Dark Knight and Rachel's ensembles would prove too enticing to ignore. But alas, the buzzy prestige best pic contenders ruled the day.

Best Actor:

Richard Jenkins
Frank Langella
Sean Penn
Brad Pitt
Mickey Rourke

Alright then. Penn, Rourke and Langella are still locks. But the surprise here is really Brad Pitt. The actors clearly loved Benjamin Button (the film and the character) more than expected. And consensus this season, surprisingly, seems to be that Brad > Leo. Maybe people are finally getting behind Brad with this prestige performance, thinking it's his time. And they'd be right. Jenkins makes his play here for the final oscar spot, and he could easily get it. And YAY for Clint Eastwood being snubbed again! Does this knock him down to 7th position? Is this the oscar list? Is Leo out? Is Brad in? Could both Leo and Brad get in? I think that's possible... we'll see. I went 4/5 in my predictions, like everyone else, missing Brad for Leo.

Best Actress:

Anne Hathaway
Angelina Jolie
Melissa Leo
Meryl Streep
Kate Winslet

Interesting. My Leo (Melissa, that is) hunch was correct. But it came at the expense of someone unexpected: Hawkins. This reminds me of last year's Linney-for-Jolie switch at oscar time. It's hard to believe Hawkins is out of the oscar race, having nearly swept the critics' awards, but who does she replace? Not Streep. Not Hathaway. Not Winslet. She could bump Leo even after Leo overtook her here. OR (more likely, I think), she could bump Jolie, who I just don't think will get #1 votes on ballots to make the oscar shortlist. OR, horror of horrors, Hawkins could miss. She has missed both the BFCA list and the SAG list, only making the cut at the globes in the comedy category. That does not bode well. So continue to rally, critics. Apparently she needs it. Ftr, I scored 4/5 here, missing Jolie for Hawkins, though I think my lineup could still be the one we see from oscar.

Best Supporting Actor:

Josh Brolin
Robert Downey, Jr.
Philip Seymour Hoffman
Heath Ledger
Dev Patel

EWWW, Dev Patel. Can't they at least reserve category fraud for truly exceptional performances? You can have your Gyllenhaal in Brokeback and Winslet in Reader, but Dev Patel? Really? Sigh. This puts him right back in contention for the oscar nod, surging him right ahead of James Franco (sigh). Though this reminds me a lot of the Keisha Castle-Hughes citation here that ultimately led to a lead nod from the academy. No other groups have really been buying the fraud on this one, and SAG probably only did it because they're only allowed to vote for people in the category they're gunning for. Hopefully Dev's votes will split at oscar time, and he'll be left out. But then, who would replace him? Neither Franco nor Michael Shannon have been doing particularly well, despite both being in films with big campaigns. And Cruise is not happening. So Dev could easily slip in. In any case, the other four are pretty locked. Ftr, I was 3/5 here... not good for me.

Best Supporting Actress:

Amy Adams
Penélope Cruz
Viola Davis
Taraji P. Henson
Kate Winslet

Interesting. My last-minute Amy Adams prediction was a good call, but swapping out Taraji Henson was not. Both made it. So my the net effect was nil, giving me a success rate of 4/5. The loser in all of this, of course, was Rosemarie DeWitt (my one bad prediction). Rachel Getting Married has gotten pretty shafted all season (beyond Hathaway), and the eponymous Rachel has been doing no better. So this appears to be a 6-woman race between Adams, Cruz, Davis, Henson, Tomei & Winslet, with DeWitt falling into "longshot spoiler" status. Of those 6, I'd take out Adams first, as I can't imagine her being #1 on many ballots above Viola Davis, but she's done well so far, so I dunno. Tomei or Henson could also miss. We'll see.

For the win, the big question is of course: Where will they give it to Kate?? Or will they at all? SAG has given her a win before (waaaay back in 1995), so they're not under the same pressure to honor her. She's nominated twice this year, but neither of her ensembles are. In fact, she's the only nominee from each of her films. So it seems its not about the films, it's all about her. If Doubt takes ensemble, which I think it will, then they may not need to give best actress to Streep, giving Kate an opening there. But I could also see her upsetting Cruz, who just doesn't seem to me like a SAG winner for some reason. Could Kate win both, with enough people voting for her twice, simply to cover themselves? I don't think it's out of the question. Could she win neither? That's not out of the question either. It'll be very exciting.

last minute SAG prediction changes

I'm switching out Taraji P. Henson for Amy Adams, who I think will benefit from massive Doubt love among actors. I'm also seriously considering Slumdog Millionaire for best ensemble, as it just seems too big at this point to be left out, but the fact is, I don't know what I'd bump to give it a spot. I still see Button, Dark Knight and Rachel ahead of it, though I fear that Rachel would be the first to go.

I really hope it doesn't miss here, since this is the award it most deserves to be up for. But the actors have a strange way of missing truly great ensembles, even from films on their radar (Juno, Junebug, etc.). I hope that when they pop in the DVD to see Anne Hathaway do her breakthrough thing, they notice how great everyone else is, too, and how well they work together. We'll see.

I love Wanda Sykes.

Predictions, predictions, predictions...

Here's how I'm expecting the SAG races to shape up:

BEST ENSEMBLE
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Doubt
Milk
Rachel Getting Married

This is far from final, but I think at least 4 of these 5 will be nominated. Which 4 is still unclear. The only one I'm totally confident in is Milk, globe snub or no. It's the only best picture frontrunner that's being touted for its ensemble acting, and has abundant stars. Button I think will show up, too, due to its combo of best picture frontrunner status and the mixture of established and rising stars. Doubt is a bit iffy, as its best picture stock is falling, but the ensemble cast is the film's main draw, and with all four of them waking up to globe nods this morning, I think it's safe to say they're in (and could even win). The Dark Knight is another film with lots of stars all doing good work, that's also in the thick of the best pic race. That leaves one spot open, which I'm hoping against hope will go to Rachel Getting Married simply because it's so deserving. They've nominated quirky indies out of nowhere here before - remember The Station Agent? - so I'm thinking this truly great ensemble might have a chance this year.

Frost/Nixon, though looking good for a best pic nom, is clearly a duet, rather than an ensemble, and I think that'll doom its chances here. Revolutionary Road is certainly a threat, but I think general mixed feelings toward the film, combined with the fact that it seems to be registering only as the Kate & Leo show, will cause it to miss here (but just barely). Slumdog Millionaire could certainly show up as well, but I think the fact that everyone in it is unknown, and that even its most diehard fans wouldn't claim that it's an acting showcase, will shut it out of this particular race. And finally, The Wrestler could surface here, but I think voters will think of it mostly as Rourke's show, and so it won't be able to slip ahead of any of the five titles above.



BEST ACTOR
Leonardo DiCaprio (Revolutionary Road)
Richard Jenkins (The Visitor)
Frank Langella (Frost/Nixon)
Sean Penn (Milk)
Mickey Rourke (The Wrestler)

I have a lot of confidence in this lineup. Unless Clint manages to rebound with this group (unlikely, if he couldn't get the globes to notice him), this is probably the list. I doubt the actors will go for Brad, since they usually prefer to recognize lesser-known character actors like Jenkins when they can, instead of super-famous stars.



BEST ACTRESS
Anne Hathaway (Rachel Getting Married)
Sally Hawkins (Happy-Go-Lucky)
Melissa Leo (Frozen River)
Meryl Streep (Doubt)
Kate Winslet (Revolutionary Road)

This is a tough one. I have a strong feeling Melissa Leo will resurface here. She's the kind of under-the-radar gem, like Jenkins, that they love to throw a bone to (most of the voters are unknown actors, after all). But Kristin Scott Thomas' globe nod indicates that she does have support, and isn't going away. It's either/or for the 5th spot, I think. Blanchett will have to sit this one out, I'd wager, as will Jolie.



BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Josh Brolin (Milk)
James Franco (Milk)
Philip Seymour Hoffman (Doubt)
Heath Ledger (The Dark Knight)
Michael Shannon (Revolutionary Road)

On this one, I'm really torn. As I said, I think Rev Road is registering mostly as the Kate & Leo show, and this is hurting Shannon. But he's also the kind of lesser-known, acclaimed actor that the SAGs love (see Jenkins & Melissa Leo). So I think he'll make it, even if the film misses ensemble (but I'm less than confident). I also think Milk will rebound here big-time, with both its supporting contenders getting in. Fiennes, I think, will suffer from vote-splitting and be left out. But Downey Jr. will be right on the heels of these five and could easily replace someone, most likely Shannon or Franco. Of course, this is also the lineup I predicted for the globes, and I was very wrong. So we'll see.



BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Penélope Cruz (Vicky Cristina Barcelona)
Viola Davis (Doubt)
Rosemarie DeWitt (Rachel Getting Married)
Taraji P Henson (Benjamin Button)
Kate Winslet (The Reader)

This is a toughie; this race is still very fluid. I would not be surprised in the least if Amy Adams got in again here, though I'm betting they'll think the ensemble award is honor enough for her. Marisa Tomei could of course make it, too. But I think the SAG preference for lesser-knowns gives DeWitt and Henson the edge. Look for Kate Winslet or Viola Davis to upset Cruz here... I just have a feeling.


I've also been thinking about the best picture race relative to the best picture races of the recent past, and I keep coming back to this feeling that Slumdog Millionaire will win it all. Maybe I'm just being pessimistic, but I really think it will. The two races that seem most analogous to this year are 2004 and 2005. Here are the parallels:

If 2008 = 2004 (which thankfully it doesn't, at least in politics)...

Benjamin Button = The Aviator (big, tech-heavy period epic with Cate Blanchett billed second to a Hollywood heartthrob; helmed by a respected, overdue auteur; early anointed frontrunner with double-digit nomination total; turns out to be "cold" and inaccessible to some)

Slumdog Millionaire = Million Dollar Baby (very emotional, somewhat facile, late entry that takes the awards race by storm; about competition with an underdog protagonist and hence has that scrappy "underdog" feel; has "million" in title to give it extra zing)

Milk = Ray OR Sideways (prestige biopic about eponymous famous man, with a central performance that lifts the whole film to oscar glory OR slightly prickly critical favorite, with strong ensemble acting along with an acclaimed central performance... take your pick, though it's really a combo of the two)

Of course, if this is the scenario, Slumdog wins, though there'll be suspense to the very end. For the record, that's what I think will happen. Not convinced? Here's exhibit B:

If 2008 = 2005...

Benjamin Button = Brokeback Mountain (big, beautiful tragic romance; helmed by a respected, overdue auteur; nabs the most nominations of all films, but some thing it "cold", "inaccessible" or "slow"; no emotional hand-holding)

Slumdog Millionaire = Crash (very emotional, somewhat facile, smaller film; feel-good entry that didn't seem awardsy until people declared it "the underdog" and then it became cool to vote for; doesn't require much thought; the kind of film people like to root for)

Milk = Capote OR Good Night and Good Luck (unconventional biopic about eponymous famous gay man, with a central performance that lifts the whole film to oscar glory OR small, overtly political film about recent historical events... take your pick, though it's really a combo of the two)

In this scenario, again, Slumdog comes out on top, though it's more of a shocking upset in this case.

Regardless, I'm starting to think it's Slumdog's year. It just feels right (even if it feels wrong). Then again, I could be wrong. After all, Benjamin Button IS an epic romance and is NOT gay. Plus, Slumdog has no stars attached (M$B and Crash definitely did). That counts for a lot. Then again, Button IS about a man who ages backwards, and it DOES show Brad Pitt as an elderly baby. That shit weirds people out.

Anyway, while The Curious Case of Benjamin Button may look like the frontrunner now, that's precisely why I think it'll end up losing. We'll see.

GG nominations (w/ my predictions)

BEST PICTURE (DRAMA)

My predictions:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Milk
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire
The Wrestler
alt. The Reader

Actual nominations:
Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
The Reader
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire

My success rate: 3/5
That's 4/5 with my alternate. I had a feeling The Reader would surprise here. But the Milk exclusion floored me. Don't expect it to transfer to Oscar - Capote, for example, got nothing but a best actor nod here either - but it's still disheartening and a bit of a shock. In any case, the Rev Road crew must be happy. Today really saved them.

BEST ACTOR (DRAMA)

My predictions:
Leonardo DiCaprio
Frank Langella
Sean Penn
Brad Pitt
Mickey Rourke
alt. Clint Eastwood

Actual nominations:
DiCaprio
Langella
Penn
Pitt
Rourke

My success rate: 5/5

100%! Yay! I'm SO glad they booted Clint Eastwood. Maybe he'll be shut out of oscar after all? And yay for me for being right about it. With any luck, the oscar race will be similar to this, probably with Jenkins replacing Pitt... we'll see.

BEST ACTRESS (DRAMA)

My predictions:
Anne Hathaway
Angelina Jolie
Melissa Leo
Meryl Streep
Kate Winslet
alt. Cate Blanchett

Actual nominations:
Anne Hathaway
Angelina Jolie
Meryl Streep
Kristin Scott Thomas
Kate Winslet

My success rate: 4/5
Not bad predictions from me. I saw the Blanchett snub coming (just not enough room). But I thought they'd keep the Leo train going here, instead of stopping it in its tracks. Kristin Scott Thomas can breathe a sigh of relief that she hasn't been totally forgotten this awards season. She's not the critical fave we expected her to be, but she's still right back in the thick of it. I would expect that this will be close to the oscar lineup, with Hawkins replacing someone, mostly likely Jolie. But Leo and Blanchett aren't out of it yet... SAG will tell the tale.

BEST PICTURE (COMEDY/MUSICAL)

My predictions:
Burn After Reading
Happy-Go-Lucky
Mamma Mia!
Sex and the City
Vicky Cristina Barcelona
alt. Cadillac Records

Actual nominations:
Burn After Reading
Happy-Go-Lucky
In Bruges
Mamma Mia!
Vicky Cristina Barcelona

My success rate: 4/5
Pretty strong slate of nominees, all things considered. All of these were acclaimed films, give or take global phenom Mamma Mia!, which you can't really blame them for recognizing. Given their love of Vicky Cristina overall, it could be headed for a win here, but the recent critical love for Happy-Go-Lucky will boost its profile. In Bruges could take it, too, I think. We'll see.

BEST ACTOR (COMEDY/MUSICAL)

My predictions:
Javier Bardem
Steve Carrell
George Clooney
Colin Farrell
Dustin Hoffman
alt. Robert Downey Jr.

Actual nominations:
Javier Bardem
Colin Farrell
James Franco
Brendan Gleeson
Dustin Hoffman

My success rate: 3/5
Not a bad score from me, in what turned out to be a pretty crazy category. Good for them for loving In Bruges, and for finding a way to honor James Franco even if they didn't love Milk. And I'm SO happy about Javier Bardem's including. Now who can win this? I'd guess it's Hoffman's to lose (as I said before the noms came out), seeing as he's got the pedigree and no one else is really standing out.

BEST ACTRESS (COMEDY/MUSICAL)

My predictions:
Sally Hawkins
Frances McDormand
Sarah Jessica Parker
Meryl Streep
Emma Thompson
alt. Scarlett Johansson

Actual nominations:
Rebecca Hall (!!!)
Sally Hawkins
Frances McDormand
Meryl Streep
Emma Thompson

My success rate: 4/5
WHOA. So the only one I missed was SJP? Color me shocked. I guess they feel like they've honored her enough? And good on them for resisting the urge to nominate my alternate, ScarJo, and instead tapping her superior (but unknown) co-star Rebecca Hall. Very nice. And yay for me for predicting McDormand, even if I didn't see the Parker snub coming.

BEST DIRECTOR

My predictions:
Danny Boyle
David Fincher
Sam Mendes
Christopher Nolan
Gus Van Sant
alt. Darren Aronofsky

Actual nominations:
Danny Boyle
Stephen Daldry
David Fincher
Ron Howard
Sam Mendes

My success rate: 3/5
You win some, you lose some. I'm proud of myself for calling Mendes (I knew RR would get a life preserver from this group). But I'm kicking myself for not going with my earlier hunch that The Reader would do well here. Honestly, I'm not at all surprised by Daldry's nod. But no Gus Van Sant for Milk? Color me shocked again. Oscar will rectify that one, to be sure. Though they'll probably keep Ron Howard. Sigh.

BEST SCREENPLAY

My predictions:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
Slumdog Millionaire
Vicky Cristina Barcelona
alt. Milk

Actual nominations:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

My success rate: 4/5
Not bad. I'm proud of myself for having the foresight to exclude Milk, though I'm sad that I was right. Didn't see The Reader coming, but I'm not really all that surprised. I think the win's between Doubt and Frost/Nixon, depending one which one they aren't able to honor elsewhere. Interesting tidbit: these are all adapted screenplays. Is this the oscar list? Curiously enough, the only major contender missing is RR, which did very well in the nominations overall. What does that mean for its oscar prospects in this category? Also, this doesn't help clear up the original screenplay race, which will be a Battle of the Snubbed (Rachel Getting Married v. Milk).

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

My predictions:
Josh Brolin
James Franco
Philip Seymour Hoffman
Heath Ledger
Michael Shannon
alt. Robert Downey Jr.

Actual nominations:
Tom Cruise (!!!)
Robert Downey Jr.
Ralph Fiennes (for Duchess, not Reader)
Philip Seymour Hoffman
Heath Ledger

My success rate: 2/5
3/5 with my alternate... what a nutso category. This muddies the waters considerably. Tom Cruise?? Really??? Whatever. And wierd of them to love The Reader so much but nominate Fiennes for his other film instead. Way to confuse oscar voters. Nice to see Robert Downey Jr. here, though. Sad and rather shocking to see Franco and especially Brolin excluded, but apparently they thought Milk was all about Sean Penn. Brolin, at least, will be back at oscar time for sure.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

My predictions:
Amy Adams
Penélope Cruz
Viola Davis
Taraji P. Henson
Kate Winslet
alt. Marisa Tomei

Actual nominations:
Amy Adams
Penélope Cruz
Viola Davis
Marisa Tomei
Kate Winslet

My success rate: 4/5
5/5 with my alternate. So did pretty well. I'm proud of myself for calling Adams. But I'm a bit surprised that they went with Tomei even though they didn't give The Wrestler a best film nod. Interesting. But Kate Winslet must be the happiest one of the night. Two nods for her, and for both her films as well. She's sitting pretty. I still expect Cruz to win this one, but Winslet's certainly a threat.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

My predictions:
Changeling
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Slumdog Millionaire
WALL•E

Actual nominations:
Changeling
Benjamin Button
Defiance
Frost/Nixon
Slumdog Millionaire

My success rate: 3/5
Not bad for this category.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

My predictions:
Australia
Sex and the City
Slumdog Millionaire
WALL•E
The Wrestler

Actual nominations:
Bolt
Cadillac Records
Gran Torino
WALL•E
The Wrestler

My success rate: 2/5
Meh. I hope The Wrestler wins (I think it will).

BEST FOREIGN FILM

My predictions:
The Class
Gomorrah
I've Loved You So Long
Let the Right One In
Waltz with Bashir
alt. The Necessities of Life

Actual nominations:
The Baader Meinhof Complex
Everlasting Moments
Gomorrah
I've Loved You So Long
Waltz with Bashir

My success rate: 3/5
Eh. Whatever. This category's hard. I think it's I've Loved You So Long or Gomorrah for the win.

BEST ANIMATED FILM

My predictions:
Kung Fu Panda
WALL•E
Waltz with Bashier
alt. Bolt

Actual nominations:
Bolt
Kung Fu Panda
WALL•E

My success rate: 2/3
3/3 with my alternate, but there were really only 4 contenders in this case. I forgot they had a way to honor Waltz with Bashir outside this category, hence the opening for Bolt. But WALL•E will win this in a walk.

So, in conclusion...

Single person given most benefit from these nominations: Kate Winslet
(I hope she and Sam and their beautiful kids throw a big party)

Single person hurt most by these nominations: Michael Shannon
(misses critics' awards and now misses with the globes, too, even when his film does well... ouch... not a good day for Michael)

Film that hit the biggest stumbling block: Milk (but it'll recover... that NYFCC award turned out to be very important after all)

Most ridiculous nomination in any category: Tom Cruise

Most welcome surprise inclusion: Rebecca Hall

Most welcome surprise exclusion: Clint Eastwood in best actor
(though they of course found ways to honor him elsewhere)

Most unwelcome surprise exclusion: everyone from Milk except Sean Penn (what's up with that?)

Who will win? Tough to say. The globes threw a few wrenches in the works, and that's exciting!

Streep v. Winslet is still on, and hotter than ever. I can't imagine they'll let 5-time nominee Doubt go home with nothing (even though they DID exclude it from best picture... weird, right?). I also can't imagine they'll let 2-time nominee Winslet go home with nothing. I also can't imagine Cruz not winning. So what gives? Something has to.

Can Penn win best actor all by his lonesome, all Capote-style, paving the way for lots of oscar nominations for his film? Or will Kate and Leo go home with his & hers statuettes? Or will Rourke take it?

Does Heath Ledger have the globe win sewn up? Especially since his main competition, Josh Brolin, was snubbed?

Is it still Button v. Slumdog for best picture (drama)? What about the comedy category?

Very exciting.

GG - Comedy/Musical: not a pretty sight

Yikes! Apparently the globe people are getting strict about dramedies trying to pass themselves off as comedies, even though they seem to have no problem with leading roles going supporting (sigh). Anyway, this year's GG comedy/musical field is pretty dismal. No real oscar hopefuls. Just one musical (and a widely reviled one, at that). Barely even any good movies to speak of. What a huge change from last year.

Rachel Getting Married, W, and Iron Man were all bumped up to drama, and that's not good news for any of them. In Rachel's case, I think that was the right call, though I now worry for Anne Hathaway's globe (and by extension oscar) chances. In W's case, I think, it's just plain wrong. All that film's value was in the comedy. Tragicomedy, sure, but I laughed at it a LOT (certainly more than I cried). And Josh Brolin really deserved that nomination.

Comedy actor is now particularly empty. All THREE leading contenders will apparently not be there. That'd be W and Iron Man again, plus Philip Seymour Hoffman in Synecdoche, NY. Who's left? Not many people! Dammit, why couldn't Glen Hansard in Once been eligible this year? Sigh. The hilarious thing is that the most likely candidate I can think of right now is actually Colin Farrell in In Bruges... wasn't he really good in that? It's apparently on the GG comedy list.

Anyway, don't be surprised if the list ends up looking like this:

Javier Bardem (Vicky Cristina Barcelona)
Steve Carrell (Get Smart)
George Clooney (Burn After Reading)
Colin Farrell (In Bruges)
Dustin Hoffman (Last Chance Harvey)

...with no one really looking like a frontrunner to win. Beyond these, there's Jack Black (Be Kind Rewind), George Clooney again (Leatherheads), Harrison Ford (Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull), Seth Rogen and James Franco (Pineapple Express). After those, you're really scraping the bottom of the barrell. Maybe they'll throw us a bone and put Robert Downey Jr's Tropic Thunder perf in lead?

I guess it's kind of cool in a way that the category's so vacant... it leaves possibilities for people you'd never think could surface here (like Bardem in Barcelona, or Farrell in anything). But it's also kind of depressing. I can't even remember the last time I literally couldn't picture ANY of the candidates winning. I was really counting on (and rooting for) Josh Brolin in W... or failing that, Robert Downey Jr. going all populist in Iron Man. Could Dustin Hoffman actually get a trophy again? How nuts.

Actress is a little better, but a little emptier now without Hathaway challenging for the win. These would be my predicted five:

Sally Hawkins (Happy-Go-Lucky)
Frances McDormard (Burn After Reading)
Sarah Jessica Parker (Sex and the City)
Meryl Streep (Mamma Mia!)
Emma Thompson (Last Chance Harvey)

...with Hawkins cruising to a win, barring a surge of love for silly, singing Streep (not impossible), or the HFPA's Carrie Bradshaw obsession running even deeper than we thought (also not impossible). I hope Hawkins wins; that'd be good consolation for her now that the oscar nod is looking less likely, what with Blanchett and Jolie breathing down her neck.

Other possible contenders here include Hathaway's other role (Get Smart), Amanda Seyfried (Mamma Mia!) Tina Fey (Baby Mama, having one of those years), Katherine Heigl (27 Dresses), McDormand again (for Miss Pettigrew Lives for a Day), her costar Amy Adams, and the eponymous girls of Vicky Cristina Barcelona. We'll see what happens.

That leaves Best Picture. Yep, that one's pretty empty, too. Which of course means heterosexual male cinephiles everywhere will probably have to endure both Sex and the City and Mamma Mia! being up for this award (what's scarier is one of them could even win... the category still has no real frontrunner). If even my female directing professor loathes both these films, I can only imagine how straight men must feel.

My predictions, I suppose, would be as follows:

Burn After Reading
Happy-Go-Lucky
Mamma Mia!
Sex and the City
Vicky Cristina Barcelona

...but I could see any of these five being snubbed. Other very real possibilities include In Bruges, Last Chance Harvey, Tropic Thunder, and Pineapple Express. Somewhat longer shots: Get Smart, Cadillac Records, and Miss Pettigrew Lives for a Day.

Any guesses at to what will win? I was really hoping (despite myself) that Rachel Getting Married would get placed here and then pull out a win. But with it out of the running, I'm worried that Sex or Mamma could really take it. But hopefully they split the divisive diva blockbuster vote, and the globes go all Mike-Leigh-highbrow with Happy-Go-Lucky.

It'll be interesting, at least.

NBR predictions

Here are my predictions for the NBR announcement Thursday:

Best Picture: Milk
alt: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

Director: David Fincher (Benjamin Button)
alt: Sam Mendes (Revolutionary Road)

Actor: Sean Penn (Milk)
alt: Leonardo DiCaprio (Revolutionary Road)

Actress: Meryl Streep (Doubt)
alt: Kate Winslet (Rev Road and/or Reader)

Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger (Dark Knight)
alt: Michael Shannon (Rev Road)

Supporting Actress: Penélope Cruz (Vicky Cristina Barcelona)
alt: Viola Davis (Doubt)

Original Screenplay: Jenny Lumet (Rachel Getting Married)
alt: Dustin Lance Black (Milk)

Adapted Screenplay: John Patrick Shanley (Doubt)
alt: Eric Roth (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button)

Breakthrough Actor: Dev Patel (Slumdog Millionaire)
alt: Richard Jenkins (The Visitor)

Breakthrough Actress: Sally Hawkins (Happy-Go-Lucky)
alt: Rosemarie DeWitt (Rachel Getting Married)

Animated Feature: WALL•E

Special Achievement: Clint Eastwood (Changeling and/or Gran Torino)
alt: John Patrick Shanley (Doubt)

TOP TEN
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
Rachel Getting Married
Revolutionary Road
Slumdog Millionaire
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Reader
The Visitor
The Wrestler