OK, in response to the golden globe frenzy, I am going through each category with nominees, reactions, who was snubbed, who got lucky, who'll be duking it out for the win, and who's likely to repeat with oscar... and, of course, how I did with my predictions. Here we go:
BEST PICTURE, DRAMA
The Constant Gardener
Good Night, and Good Luck
A History of Violence
My score: 3/5 (Munich and Crash seemed so solid...)
WOW. No Munich. And such good choices otherwise... I haven't seen Constant Gardener, but it seems to stick out a bit here, maybe cause Nathaniel didn't like it... still, no surprise really that the HFPA did, since they nommed the last Feinnes/Weisz vehicle, Sunshine, out of nowhere. So happy for Brokeback, Match Point, ansd aHoV. Nice choices.
most surprising omission: Munich
most surprising inclusion: Constant Gardener (well, I think so anyway)
for the win: Brokeback vs GNaGL (big edge to Brokeback)
likely to see an oscar nom: Brokeback is locked in, and GNaGL is right behind it... but those are the only two of these that I see making it to the final five, really... I don't think CG and aHoV have a chance in hell, and Match Point seems like a director/screenplay thing only.
My score: 4/6 (should've gone with Jackson)
Interesting that they chose both Jackson and Spielberg, but neither of their films. Could one of these two end up the lone director nominee? Probably not, but it's possible. The King Kong support here and at the BFCA is probably enough to justify predicting it for best picture. Anyway, nice choices overall.
MSO: Cronenberg (since they did after all go for his film)
MSI: Mereilles (my opinion... especially over Cronenberg)
FTW: Lee vs Clooney (edge to Lee... but you never know with Clooney)
likely for oscar: Lee and Clooney for sure. After that, it gets dicey. Probably Jackson will be there. I believe Allen and Spielberg will be, too, but there's really no telling at this point.
BEST ACTOR, DRAMA
My score: 3/5 (oops)
MSO: Feinnes (since they clearly liked CG)
MSI: Howard (some may say Crowe, but I really didn't think Howard would do this well...)
FTW: Hoffman vs Ledger (really tough call, since Capote got no love, and Heath got no double nom... but I wanna say Heath will win this... they do love the young stars after all)
likely for oscar: Hoffman, Ledger, and Straithairn are all looking good to go... jury's still out on Crowe and Howard.
BEST ACTRESS, DRAMA
My score: 3/5 (sigh... I had such faith in Joan Allen)
This really sucks for Allen. She clearly deserved the Zhang spot, but really I don't understand why they chose Paltrow or Theron over her either. And as for Bello... LEAD!?
MSO: Allen (DAMN.)
MSI: Bello (again... LEAD!? and without Viggo? whoa... somebody's a new HFPA favorite, and it's not even Scarlett J...)
FTW: Huffman vs Bello (yes, I think Bello could actually win this... but yes, it will probably go to Huffman)
likely for oscar: Um... just Huffman. She seems like a lock at this point. Theron I suppose could get in, but I doubt it, and Bello could get in... to some category or another... with a little luck.
BEST PICTURE, MUSICAL/COMEDY
Mrs. Henderson Presents
Pride & Prejudice
The Squid and the Whale
Walk the Line
My score: 3/5 (grrr...)
Fair enough list. I'd heard a rumor over at TheEnvelope.com that the HFPA "hated" The Producers, though apparently that rumor was unfounded. I'm sad for Rent and The Family Stone, but I guess I'm not all that surprised.
MSO: tie: Rent/Family Stone (both could've made it, but just... didn't)
MSI: Squid and Whale (this seemed like the kind of thing that'd hit acting categories only, but good on the HFPA)
FTW: Walk The Line vs everything (it seems like any of them could conceivably take it, but WtL has the edge for being a biopic/musical drama, and for being a hit... it be surprised to see it lose here, really)
likely for oscar: Walk the Line (though Mrs. Henderson and P&P do have outside shots still)
BEST ACTOR, MUSICAL/COMEDY
My score: 3/6 (ouch.)
What the...? What!? Insanity.
MSO: Heath Ledger for Casanova (he'd been talked up a lot for this... but I never thought that movie looked very good)
MSI: Pierce Brosnan (by far... though the Depp and Daniels noms kinda flipped my shit, too)
FTW: Phoenix vs Daniels (but Daniels will lose pretty bad)
likely for oscar: Phoenix... but I suppose Daniels has a bit of a chance, too (career sentiment type thing).
BEST ACTRESS, MUSICAL/COMEDY
Sarah Jessica Parker
My score: 4/5 (not bad)
Nice list. Not one stupid rom-com perf in the bunch.
MSO: Meryl Streep (I really thought she'd place here... they do love her, after all)
MSI: Laura Linney (but YAY! if someone had to knock out Streep, I'm glad it was her)
FTW: Dench vs Witherspoon (Dench is definitely in the running, but Reese has the edge with both the critics and the public; she will win)
likely for oscar: Dench, Witherspoon, and possibly Knightley... though I continue to doubt her chances now that she's been put in comedy, and can't win... I just feel like they'll go with someone else when the time comes.
BEST ACTOR, SUPPORTING
My score: 3/5 (I went with Gyllenhaal)
Nothing surprising here except Will Ferrell. I really don't get why he's here. He just... he needs to go back to SNL. Stat.
MSO: Jake Gyllenhaal (I'm assuming this is because they thought him a lead... also, the William Hurt snub is odd, given their love for his film, but I guess he hadn't yet won his critics' awards, so...)
MSI: Ferrell (give me a break.)
FTW: George Clooney (I don't see anyone else taking this... I'm thinking they give him this one to make up for his loss to Lee in the director race)
likely for oscar: Clooney, Giamatti and Hoskins (in that order) are looking solid... Dillon is looking pretty good, too. Will Ferrell, on the other hand? No.
BEST ACTRESS, SUPPORTING
My score: 3/5 (but I got Shirley!)
Interesting... Scarlett is finally back on track, as I knew she would be, but Keaton is not... will she be ignored entirely? Wiesz continues to look stronger for the oscar nom, and Williams continues to looks solid. McDormand is as good a choice as any, I guess, and as for MacLaine... well, most were probably surprised at this, but I saw it coming a mile away.
MSO: Diane Keaton (though the Thurman snub is also very strange... she seems like the best of the cast, so you'd think she'd make it if they even nominated Will Ferrell... and I suppose Keener and Adams were looking like they might place here, too)
MSI: MacLaine, I guess (but I was not surprised... really there were so many viable candidates here that no one would've been surprising)
FTW: Scarlett Johannson vs. everyone (one could make a case for any one these ladies winning, and any one of them might... but my money's on Scarlett, since they clearly want her babies and seem to really love Match Point in general)
likely for oscar: Scarlett and Michelle Williams both look solid to me. Weisz is looking strong, too. And while I don't expect Shirley and Frances to last, it's certainly possible... still quite an open category, says me.
Goodnight, and Good Luck
My score: 4/5 (not bad at all... but why didn't I predict GNaGL?)
Generally as expected, but without the two critical darlings of the year (The Squid and the Whale and Capote). But no matter; all seven will see oscar nods when the time comes.
MSO: The Squid and the Whale (since they clearly liked it in general... but Capote comes in a close second)
MSI: None, really... these all made sense... this category is always crowded at the globes.
FTW: Brokeback vs Match Point (tough call... I feel like they'll reward Woody here, but Brokeback could take this in a sweep)
likely for oscar: All of them... and the screenplay oscar winners
are most likely here, too (see again: Brokeback and Match Point... or maybe Crash)
Chronicles of Narnia
My score: ...oops, I didn't do the music categories.
Interesting... another nom for Desplat (Syriana) is nice... but I'm not sure what to make of these five, really.
MSO: Well, there were several... but none really stand out.
MSI: Chronicles of Narnia (wasn't expecting that one)
FTW: I'd say Syriana vs Brokeback, but who knows... they make crazy choices here, and I haven't heard most of these scores anyway.
likely for oscar: Williams' Memoirs sore, and Santaolla's Brokeback score seem very likely. The King Kong score is a good bet, too... as for Syriana and Narnia, who the hell knows. Hard to say.
Christmas in Love
Chronicles of Narnia
I have no clue what to make of these. So totally random.
My score: N/A
MSO: Well, I thought one of those Elizabethtown songs would make it.
MSI: Christmas in Love (I have never heard of that film)
FTW: I feel like the Dolly Parton song from Transamerica would win, just cause she's Dolly Parton, but then Transamerica would win both it's categories, so maybe not... maybe Christmas in Love? I really have no idea.
Likely for oscar: Brokeback Mountain will probably carry this category... I think The Producers song is likely also, since it's a musical, and the Transamerica song, too, since it's Dolly... but really, who knows. Other than the Brokeback song missing, nothing would surprise me here.
Phew. That's it, then.
So. Brokeback didn't quite hit 8 nominations since Jake dropped the ball (what's up with that, Jake? all your fault, you bum), but with 7, it's still far and away the nominations leader and frontrunner. Good deal. I expect Brokeback to win picture and director, and possibly actor and/or screenplay, and/or score... hell, it might win a whole lot. But I'm thinking 3 or 4 globes will be all. Match Point, I think, will win supporting actress or screenplay or both (probably both). Walk the Line will probably win in all 3 of its categories. Clooney will probably win in supporting actor. Huffman will probably win for dramatic actress (and possibly over in her TV category, too). So really, I think most categories are pretty predictable. I'm most excited about Foffman vs Ledger, cause I bet it'll be a really close race. I'm pulling for Heath all the way on that one (though neither result would disappoint me). And though the Brokeback best picture win seems like a gimme, I think there's enough suspense there to at least make it interesting. A big win like that for Brokeback would just be TOO good... I really want to see it happen.
So that's it for now. Oy. Time to finish up with finals. Then all though break I can just obsess about movies. Nice.