So I decided to try and officially beat
Nathaniel to the punch this year in the April Fools year-in-advance game. Of course, I got most of my info on upcoming releases from his
studio rundown page, so I can't take too much credit for anything I get right.
The omissions I feel worst about are
Charlie Wilson's War (in every category) and Joseph Gordon-Levitt in
The Lookout (I predicted the film in other categories but figured the best actor field would be too competitive). I don't feel too bad about leaving out
Sweeney Todd... I just have a feeling it'll be a big miss... I didn't predict it in any category but best supporting actress for Bonham-Carter (I have an inkling she might actually steal the film and be the only one praised... plus I couldn't think of anyone else to predict instead).
My ballsiest prediction: Unconventional Bob Dylan biopic
I'm Not There gets several major noms, including Best Picture. I think it's high time a Todd Haynes film got some oscar love. His last three films ALL deserved nominations for oscar's highest honor, and were all overlooked, but I think this time might be different, due to the combo of:
1) biopic of VERY famous and revered musician (
Ray &
Walk the Line were oscar hits)
2) lots of major stars (Bale, Blanchett, Brody, Gere, Ledger, Williams, etc.)
3) Harvey Weinstein (who, incidentally, wanted to distribute Haynes' last film, the oscar-worthy
Far From Heaven)
If it's brilliant (highly likely) and they're able to sell it and campaign it effectively (also likely, with Weinstein onboard), it could be a major event. And if it's placed in comedy/musical at the globes, that can only help... LOTS of room there for stars to get noms if some go lead, and of course for the pic itself to grab a spot.
Anyway, predictions are all laid out on the sidebar (right below the new "favorite actors" lists, and above "the usual suspects"); you can scroll down to see them. I've chucked the old system of linking to each category's page, and just made everything visible on the sidebar instead. I'll only change these only every few months, probably, until waaaaaay later in the year.
UPDATE: Here are official year-in-advance predictions, to be preserved until nomination day and then uncovered to check my success rate:
BEST PICTURE
The Golden AgeI'm Not ThereLions for LambsThere Will Be BloodYouth Without Youth(probably should've predicted:
Atonement,
Rendition)
BEST DIRECTOR
Cronenberg (
Eastern Promises)
Haynes (
I'm Not There)
Redford (
Lions for Lambs)
P. T. Anderson (
There Will Be Blood)
F. F. Coppola (
Youth Without Youth)
(probably should've predicted: Joe Wright for
Atonement)
BEST ACTOR
Bale (
Rescue Dawn)
Day-Lewis (
There Will Be Blood)
Ganz (
Youth Without Youth)
Joaquin Phoenix (
Reservation Road)
Denzel Washington (
American Gangster)
(probably should've predicted: Clooney, Gordon-Levitt)
BEST ACTRESS
Blanchett (
Golden Age)
Cotillard (
La Vie En Rose)
Jolie (
A Mighty Heart)
Moore (
Savage Grace)
Streep (
Lions for Lambs)
(probably should've predicted: Christie, Knightley)
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Bosco (
The Savages)
Daniels (
The Lookout)
Dano (
There Will Be Blood)
Owen (
The Golden Age)
Ruffalo (
Reservation Road)
(probably should've predicted: Redford, or someone from
I'm Not There)
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Blanchett (
I'm Not There)
Bonham-Carter (
Sweeney Todd)
Garai (
Atonement)
Morton (
The Golden Age)
Redgrave (
Evening)
(probably should've predicted: Redgrave for
Atonement)
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
I'm Not ThereLions for LambsThe LookoutMargot at the WeddingThe Savages(probably should've predicted:
Rendition,
Michael Clayton)
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
AtonementThe Kite RunnerReservation RoadThere Will Be BloodYouth Without Youth(probably should've predicted:
Evening,
Charlie Wilson's War)
ANIMATED FEATURE
RatatoilleShrek the ThirdThe Simpsons Movie(I really think these three'll actually make it)
Note how I'm already second guessing myself... one thing I forgot to do is think about each separate studio and how they'll all try to have a big film in play. Focus'
Atonement will probably be bigger than I'm assuming. But these were my original predictions and they are official. Enough with this insane exercise. In 9 months, we'll see how I do.
Questions? Agreement? Dischord? Leave all your thoughts down in the comments.
Labels: April Fools, awards season 2007, I'm Not There